This Remarkable Golden Spell Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

A mere two months ago when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach scolded him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for Villa's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

The Manager's Celebration of Triumph

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?

It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the victories have accumulated.

According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

His opener originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

An Unstoppable Force

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.

  • The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.

This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.

Kevin Hamilton
Kevin Hamilton

Elara is a digital strategist with over 8 years of experience in web design and online marketing, passionate about helping startups succeed.