A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
